【摘要】 考虑一条由风险规避型零售商主导的"单制造商-单零售商"双渠道供应链,通过求解供应链系统在分权决策模式下最大效用的Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件,得到供应链在需求扰动前后的最优定价和生产、销售决策、扰动规模、风险规避系数、市场份额对决策的影响。研究表明,在不同的扰动规模、风险规避系数、市场份额组合下,供应链的最优决策不同。需求扰动前后供应链中的决策变量与零售商风险规避系数的关系相同。在需求扰动时,供应链的最优决策变量相比稳定环境下的决策值会发生变动,但需要调整的量都是需求变动量的线性函数。系统的原始最优生产量具有鲁棒性,存在一个稳健区间使需求发生扰动时供应链无需调整生产计划。当需求扰动规模在稳健区域内时,直销渠道和分销渠道的稳定性相同,当超出稳健区域时,直销渠道的稳定性小于传统分销渠道。需求扰动的幅度越大,管理者知道需求扰动的价值越大。更多还原

【Abstract】 A risk-averse dual-channel supply chain made up of one dominate retailer and one manufacturer is taken into account. By solving the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)condition of the decentralized supply chain system,the optimal pricing and production,sales decisions within different demand disruption range and the effects of disruption range,coefficient of risk aversion and market share are obtained. Some conclusions are drawn:The optimal decision of the supply chain will different if it exists the environment with different disruption range,coefficient of risk aversion and market share. But the effect on every variable of the coefficient of risk aversion will not change before and after the demand being disrupted.The initial optimal decisions will change when the demand is disrupted,but the volume needed to adjust is the linear function of the amount of the demand disturbances. Within a certain range of demand disturbance(steady range),the initial optimal production plan will not change,but different measures should be taken based on the market share of the two channels and the disruption degree when the disturbance is out of the certain range. In addition,within the steady range,the effect on the two channels of the disturbance is the same,but effect on the direct-channel of the disturbance will be bigger when the disturbance is out of the certain range. The value of knowing the demand disturbances will be different for supply chain participants under different disturbance scale and coefficient of risk aversion,whatever,the bigger the disturbance is,the more important the managers know the information of demand disruption.更多还原