【摘要】 自1999年扩招以后,中国高考报名人数大大增加,不过近年来高考人数呈下降趋势,其原因众说纷纭。"人口减少"说、"不公平"说、"就业难"说、"多元化"说、"教育高收费"说都有一定市场,甚至有人还将高考报名人数下降有意无意地归于计划生育政策。基于1999年—2010年的省级面板数据,分析发现,计划生育政策减少了高考报名人数,高考扩招在一定程度上提高了农村家庭孩子上大学的机会,但也降低了高等教育收益,增大了农村家庭的教育成本;多元化出路是教育高收费和就业压力下农村家庭短视并无奈的选择,大学扩招存在不公平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China’s Higher Education Enrollment in 1999,the number of applicants for National College Entrance Examination increased fast,but it decreased in recent years. There are different reasons: "population decline","unfair","employment pressure","diversity"and"higher education fees". Some people even intentionally or unintentionally attributed the number of decreasing applicants to family planning policy. Based on provincial panel data from 1999- 2010,we found that China’s Family Planning policy decreased the number of applicants. Education reform increased the changes of college,but decreased education profit and high the education cost of the rural family. "Diversity"is a shortsighted and helpless choice of the rural choice,under high education fees and employment pressure. Enlarging National College Entrance Examination is unequal.更多还原