【摘要】 文章研究森林病虫鼠害指数保险的指数构建问题,为开创林业指数保险这一全新保险品种和促进林业健康发展提供支持。首先,利用辽宁省21个县市2008~2013年72个月的月度面板数据进行回归分析,识别森林病虫害的显著风险致灾因子;然后,以显著的风险致灾因子为依据得到各县市森林病虫害发生率;最后,根据辽宁省实际情况,将森林病虫害发生率与人为基准相结合构建出森林病虫害指数。研究结果表明,辽宁省不同县市森林病虫害指数介于2~36之间,差异明显,因而提出了进行费率厘定时应分区考虑、进行指数设计时要因地制宜的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the construction of forest pests insurance index based on factor identification of panel data,providing support for creating forestry index insurance and promote the healthy development of forestry. First,we use monthly panel data between 2008 and 2010 of 21 counties and cities in Liaoning province to conduct regression analysis, in order to identify the significant risk factors of forest pests. Then obtain the incidence of forest pests of different counties and cities based on the significant risk factors. Last, construct forest pests index in combination with incidence and artificial benchmark based on the actual situation in Liaoning province. The study proves that there are clear differences of forest pests index between different counties and cities in Liaoning province, and puts forward the proposal that risk zoning should be considered when setting the rate and adjust measures to local conditions when constructing index.更多还原