【摘要】 收集北京市某三级甲等医院2009-2011年消化系统疾病急诊就诊资料93 301例,在Spearman相关分析的基础上,用分布滞后非线性模型与广义相加模型相结合,对气温、相对湿度、风速对急诊人数的影响和滞后效应进行分析.就诊人数与气温、相对湿度、水汽压、降水量等均为显著正相关,而与气压、风速为显著负相关.20℃附近是最不利于消化系统疾病发病的气温条件;气温高于25℃时高温效应明显,累积效应在滞后4~7 d时最明显.最不利于发病的湿度条件为相对湿度50%左右,滞后0~1 d的湿度效应不明显;滞后2~3 d时相对湿度为70%的危险度高;滞后3~5 d时低于阈值的相对湿度危险度最大.4 m/s左右的风速下发病数较少,而风速为1~2 m/s时在滞后0~4 d会增加消化系统疾痫风险;6 m/s及以上的风速危险度大且作用持久,但其本身出现频次低.主要气象要素对消化系统疾病的发病影响显著且各要素均具有不同的滞后效应.更多还原

【Abstract】 Clinic data(93 301 cases) on digestive diseases from 2009 to 2011 were collected from a toptier hospital in Beijing.On the basis of Spearman’s correlation analysis,the distributed lag nonlinear model applied,together with generalized additive models,to qualify the lagged impact of air temperature,relative humidity and wind speed on the emergency number.The number of visits was positively correlated with air temperature,relative humidity,vapor pressure,and precipitation,but significantly negatively correlated with barometric pressure and wind speed.Temperature about 20 ℃ was the most unfavorable for digestive disease;temperature that was higher than 25 ℃ had obvious impact,and its cumulative effect was very evident on lag 4-7 d.The morbidity was the lowest if the relative humidity was around 50%,and the effect of humidity was not obvious from lagged 0-1 d;the risk of relative humidity 70%was the highest on lagged 2-3 d.Wind speed about 4 m/s could significantly reduce the risk of digestive diseases,while wind in the range of 1-2 m/s would increase the incidence of digestive diseases from lagged 0-4 d.Wind speed is greater than or equal to 6 m/s results in higher risk but with low frequency of occurrence.Weather conditions were closely related to the occurrence of digestive diseases,and the lagged effect of different elements exhibited their own characteristics.更多还原