【摘要】 解释和预测通勤者的时间价值和出行行为是实施交通需求管理措施,进而缓解城市交通拥堵的基础研究工作之一。综合考虑出行时间、计划延误、厢内拥挤和地铁票价等影响因素,给出了地铁通勤者的出行效用表达式,基于Logit模型对地铁通勤者早高峰期间的出发时刻选择行为进行了研究。针对不同的地铁通勤情景进行组合,设计了意愿偏好调查问卷,在北京地区进行了实证调查。统计结果表明,对北京地铁的通勤者而言,早到和晚到上班地点的计划延误价值每分钟分别为0.237元和0.406元;厢内拥挤的程度和地铁票价的折扣变化都会影响地铁通勤的出发时刻选择。考虑收入的异质性对模型进行了改进,统计结果在0.05水平上是显著的。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is one of the basics to study and forecast travel behavior and value of time of commuters for evaluating management measures of transportation demand.Considering travel time,schedule delay,the degree of crowding on board and subway fare,the utility of the travel of commuters on subway is formulated,and a Logit-based discrete model is developed to describe the choice behavior of departure time in morning peak hours.After that,a stated-preference questionnaire is designed with selected scenario combinations and distributed to subway commuters.The survey is conducted over an empirical study in Beijing.Statistical results based on the analysis to the survey data show that,for subway commuters in Beijing,the value of schedule delay per minute for arriving early or late at work is 0.237 Yuan and 0.406 Yuan,respectively.The degree of crowding on board and the discount of subway fare both influence the choice behavior of departure time of commuters.The results are significant at the level of 0.05 when this model is improved by taking the income heterogeneity of commuters into the consideration.更多还原