【摘要】 系统分析了油价与操作成本之间的传导机制和相关性。利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,建立了油价与操作成本的相关随机变量进行经济评价,分析了油价与操作成本的相关性对项目评价的影响。结果表明:当不考虑油价与操作成本的相关性时,净现值法会低估项目价值,导致项目净现值对油价变化更加敏感;当油价出现极端波动时,忽视两者的相关性可能导致错误的投资决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism and the relevance between oil price and operational cost.On the basis of NPV method,using Monte Carlo simulation method to establish the random variable representing relevance between oil price and operational cost,and analyzes the impact of this relevance on project evaluation.The results show as follows:without considering this relevance,NPV method underestimates project’s value and leads to the increasing of sensitivity to oil price;when oil price appears extreme volatility,ignoring this relevance could lead to wrong investment decisions.更多还原