【摘要】 本文运用HP滤波和时间序列分析法,探讨了我国生猪规模养殖变化与生猪价格波动之间的动态关系,得出:生猪规模养殖和生猪价格波动周期差异明显,两者存在长期均衡和单向格兰杰因果关系,生猪价格的调整能力相对较强,生猪规模养殖冲击对生猪价格波动有正向影响,生猪价格冲击对生猪规模养殖有持续负影响。基于研究结论,提出稳定生猪价格和推进规模养殖方面的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article uses HP filter and time series analysis method to explore the dynamic relationship between pig scale breeding change and price fluctuation in China, and the results showed that the fluctuation cycle difference of scale breeding and pig price is obvious, and scale breeding and pigs price have long-term equilibrium and one-way granger causality, and the adjustment ability of pig price is relatively strong, and it has a positive impact on pigs scale breeding impulse to pig price fluctuation, and it has a negative impact on pig price impulse to pig scale breeding. Based on the conclusion, it puts forward some countermeasures to stable pig price and promote scale breeding.更多还原