【摘要】 中国人口政策调整的具体影响是目前全社会关注的焦点,而预测人口自然增长轨迹是其中的关键因素。本文在Hsiao et al.(2012)模型中引入个体因素,基于面板数据的共同因子测度政策实施的潜在运行轨迹,借以分析中国人口政策变轨的动态效应。测度结果显示,"一胎政策"实际路径与潜在路径的人口差距持续增大,到2012年,二者相差约3.4亿人口。同时,人口结构扭曲加剧,"一胎政策"使人口老龄化状态提早了至少12年。研究表明,潜在路径上人口总量呈算术级而非几何级增长,少儿比例随经济发展存在内生的下降趋势,所以,即使全面放开二胎政策也不会造成人口的井喷式增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of China’s population policy is currently focused by the whole society. In order to measure its dynamic effect,we introduce individual factors to the model proposed by Hsiao et al.( 2012),which is based on panel data to solve the treatment effect. Since the implementation of "one- child policy",the population gap between actual and potential path increased up to 340 million people in 2012. At the same time,aging population occurred by at least 12 years in advance due to "one- child policy". Our research shows that the population increased by arithmetic rather than geometric progression in the potential path,the proportion of underage population declined endogenously with the development of economy. Therefore,further reform of the universal two- child policy will not lead to a population boom.更多还原