【摘要】 两行根数(Two-Line Elements,TLE)数据是空间碎片轨道的主要数据源,然而使用TLE-SGP4模型得到的低轨空间碎片轨道预报精度并不高。联合多个两行根数进行轨道预报的方法可以实现提高低轨空间碎片轨道预报精度的目的。该方法首先从多个连续两行根数历元附近产生伪观测值,然后利用这些伪观测值进行轨道确定,最后得到轨道预报结果。选取2009年5个轨道高度500-600 km空间碎片的两行根数数据对该方法进行测试,利用更新后的两行根数作为参考轨道,对该方法和TLESGP4模型得到的轨道预报结果进行对比。实验结果表明使用该方法时,这5个碎片轨道预报10天的最大位置误差都在5 km以内,相比于TLE-SGP4模型得到的10天轨道预报误差降低显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Two-Line Elements(TLE) datasets are the primary source for debris orbits. However, the orbit prediction precision for low earth orbiting space debris using the TLE-SGP4 model is far less than satisfactory. The method of orbit prediction by combining multiple TLE can achieve the purpose of improving orbit predication precision for low earth orbiting space debris. Firstly, this method determined the debris orbit using the TLE-computed positions near the TLE reference epochs as pseudo-observations in the orbit determination, and then to propagate the orbit. The method was tested by continuous TLE data on5 debris objects at altitude of about 500-600 km during 2009. The orbit prediction results for the method and TLE-SGP4 model were compared using updated TLE data as reference orbit. The 10-day orbit prediction errors for the 5 debris are all less than 5 km using this method, which is significantly less than those from using the TLE-SGP4 model.更多还原