【摘要】 利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_2.5、PM₁₀、O₃、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_2.5的预报性能明显优于PM₁₀、O₃和NO₂,PM_2.5平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O₃和NO₂预测值呈明显负偏差,O₃峰值预测不足,NO₂预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the comparison of environmental air quality monitoring data in 2015,the effect of OPAQ air quality statistical forecast model in Tianjin was evaluated. The results showed that the prediction of AQI and PM_2.5,PM₁₀,O₃,NO₂ concentrations were in good agreement with the monitoring data,and the correlation coefficient was higher with the prediction time nearer. The correlation coefficient r of 24-hour forecast all reached more than 0. 8. The prediction performance of PM_2.5was better than that of PM₁₀,O₃ and NO₂,with a minor positive deviation than the average value,but the forecast value of heavy pollution was 15% lower.The predictions of O₃ and NO₂were significantly negatively deviated,with O₃ peak value prediction underestimated and NO₂ prediction value low. The 24-hour forecast had the best tendency but the negative bias was the most prominent.更多还原