【摘要】 基于2012年环境统计数据库,量化了南京青奥会期间江苏省13个省辖市临时管控措施的主要大气污染物减排量;应用WRF-CMAQ（天气研究和预报模式-公共多尺度空气质量模型）模拟了不采取控制措施（情景0）和采取工业临时管控措施（情景1）下的ρ(PM_2.5),并结合实际观测数据开展南京青奥会期间管控措施空气质量改善效果评估.结果表明:与情景0相比,在采取燃煤控制、工业停限产、工地停工、区域联防联控等临时管控措施的情景1下,南京和江苏省ρ(PM_2.5)月均值分别降低了8%和4%;对比情景0的模拟结果和实测值可知,在采取了临时管控和应急管控措施的情况下,南京和江苏省ρ(PM_2.5)平均分别降低了21%和12%.在13个省辖市中,2014年8月南京工业SO₂、NO_x和烟粉尘减排量分别为2 062、3 037、835 t,月减排比例分别为24%、30%、27%,减排效果突出,PM_2.5改善效果显著,提示内源特别是工业污染控制对当地大气污染治理至关重要.在扩散条件相对不利的情况下,模型模拟预期的几次重污染并未出现,说明通过加大管控力度可有效减轻或避免重空气污染事件的发生.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the environmental statistics database for 2012,the emissions reductions of main air pollutants in 13 provincial cities under temporary control measures during the period of the Youth Olympic Games（ YOG） in Nanjing City were quantified. In order to evaluate the air quality benefits under the control measures during the period of the YOG,the regional air quality model WRF-CMAQ was applied to simulate ρ( PM_2.5) under two scenarios（ scenario 0: no control measures adopted; scenario 1: temporary industrial control measures adopted）. The comparison between scenario 0 and 1 showed that after adopting the temporary control measures,averageρ( PM_2.5) in Nanjing and the Jiangsu Province was reduced by 8% and 4%,respectively. The temporary control measures mainly included fuel coal control,industrial production halts and limitations,construction site shutdowns as well as regional joint prevention and control. Comparing the simulation result of scenario 0 and the observation result,actual average ρ( PM_2.5) in Nanjing and across the whole province was reduced by 21% and 12%,respectively,after adopting temporary and emergency control measures. The industrial SO₂,NO_x as well as smoke and dust emissions in Nanjing were reduced by 2062,3037 and 835 t in August 2014,representing reductions of24%,30% and 27%,respectively. The significant decline of ρ( PM_2.5) indicated that inner sources,especially industrial pollution control,are critical to the local atmospheric pollution control. Expected serious pollution events in the simulation results did not occur under relatively unfavorable diffusion condition,which indicates that strengthened management and control can reduce or avoid serious air pollution.更多还原