【摘要】 通过建立上海市环境经济CGE模型,模拟了上海市排污费征收标准调整政策出台后对经济和主要大气污染物减排的影响以及与其它相关政策的协同效应。结果表明,不同的排污费调整政策情景均对GDP有一定的负面效应,2020年GDP损失约0.054%⁰.095%,收费标准越高,负面影响越大,其中,受影响最大的为高耗能高排放的行业,但对电厂来说,在一系列补贴政策的激励下脱硫脱硝取得了重大进展,企业所负担的成本得到了有效缓解,降低了排污费调整带来的负面影响。排污收费标准提高产生的减排效果非常显著,如果所有的工业行业排放均按新的排放标准进行阶梯收费,2020年SO₂相对基准情景的减排率可达27.0%³6.2%,NO_x的减排率可达20.1%²9.6%,将会对实现"十三五"减排目标发挥非常重要的作用。结合实证研究结论,进一步围绕如何更好地发挥排污收费政策的作用提出了相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shanghai dynamic environment- economy CGE model is developed to simulate the environmental and economic effects by the adjustment of discharge levy standard, and the synergistic effects between the adjustment policy and other relevant policies have also been modeled. The result indicates that the negative impacts on GDP due to the adjustment policy are rather modest and stay range from 0. 054%- 0. 095% compared with baseline in 2020,and the negative influence are greater with a higher discharge fee. Energy intensive industries with high emission are mostly negatively influenced.Nevertheless,in particular,power plants benefit from a series of financial subsidies and thus make great improvement in the field of desulfurization and denitration. Consequently,the burden of power plants can be alleviated. In contrast,increasing the discharge standard also has a significant impact on the emission reduction. If all industrial emissions were levied with the new standard multi- step charge system,the emission of SO₂ can be reduced by 27. 0% 36. 2%,and NO_x can be reduced by 20. 1% 29. 6% relative to baseline in 2020. It plays a positive role in reaching the emission reduction target of 13 th Five Year Plan. Furthermore,Policy recommendations on further improving the efficient of pollution charge standard adjustment are put forward based on the empirical findings.更多还原