【摘要】 一国货币的国际化程度主要体现在其国际影响力及对国际主要国家货币汇率波动的反应程度。人民币纳入SDR货币篮子将会改变人民币在国际货币金融体系中的地位与作用,从而影响人民币国际化程度。基于2015年8月11日至2016年3月16日的样本区间数据,通过构建VAR模型实证检验人民币加入SDR预期因素对人民币国际化程度的影响。结果发现:第一,人民币加入SDR预期能够提升人民币在国际货币金融体系中的影响力,尤其是人民币对美元的影响力将大大增加,但是其对世界其他主要货币的影响力仍显不足;第二,样本区间内,人民币自由化程度并没有提升,因为人民币汇率并没有随着世界主要货币汇率的波动而有所变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The degree of internationalization of a country’s currency is mainly reflected in its international influence and the degree of reaction to the international currency exchange rate fluctuations. RMB, being included in the SDR basket will change the status and role of RMB in international monetary and financial system, which may have impact on the degree of internationalization of RMB.Based on the sample data from August 11, 2015 to March 16, 2016,the paper constructs VAR model and empirically tests the impact of the expected factors of RMB’s being included in SDR on the degree of internationalization. The results show that RMB being included in SDR can enhance the impact of RMB on international monetary and financial system, especially being against US dollar. But the impact of RMB on other major currencies in the world is still insufficient. During the sample period, the degree of liberalization of RMB does not increase, because RMB exchange rate does not change with the fluctuation of the world’s major currency exchange rates. To give full play to the expected signal function of RMB’s being included in SDR, China should actively promote the reform of SDR and promote the reform of financial markets to make RMB exchange rate move towards a more liberal direction.更多还原