【摘要】 目的定量化分析危重型手足口病患儿实验室指标对死亡风险的早期预警价值。方法单因素及Logistic回归分析危重型手足口病患儿死亡的独立危险因素,并建立Logistic回归模型,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)综合评价该模型和实验室指标对危重型手足口病患儿死亡风险的早期预警能力及其最佳界值。结果综合白细胞计数、中性粒细胞计数、肌红蛋白和肌酐建立的Logistic回归模型(Y)早期预测危重型手足口病患儿死亡风险的AUC为0.847(95%置信区间:0.783~0.911),诊断价值优于单一指标。结论综合白细胞数、中性粒细胞数、肌红蛋白和肌酐4项指标建立的Y模型诊断价值优于单一指标,对危重型手足口病患儿死亡风险具有较好的早期预警价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To quantitatively analyze the early warning value of laboratory indexes for death risk in children with critical hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD).Methods The univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were conducted to explore the independent risk factors of death in critical HFMD children.Then the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)was applied to give the comprehensive assessment of the test model,as well as the early warning capacity and the optimal cut-off level of laboratory indexes in critical HFMD children.Results The AUC of the Logistic regression model(Y)established based on white blood cell,neutrophil,myoglobin,creatinine for early predicting the death risk in critical HFMD children patients was 0.847(95% CI:0.783-0.911),which indicating that its diagnostic value was superior to single index.Conclusion The diagnostic value of the Y model established based on four indexes of white blood cell count,neutrophile granulocytes count,myohemoglobin and creatinine is superior to any single index,which has the better early warning value for the death risk in children with critical HFMD.更多还原