【摘要】 根据哈尔滨市2007-2012年人均GDP和大气污染指标的统计数据,对人均GDP和大气污染作相关分析。以人均GDP为自变量,大气污染指标为因变量,建立了哈尔滨市环境库兹涅茨曲线。并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对未来5年进行预测。经过研究发现,流量指标的曲线大多近似于环境库兹涅茨曲线的左半段,说明随着经济增长,工业污染物排放量不断增加。而存量指标的曲线大多近似于环境库兹涅茨曲线的右半段,经济增长到一定程度之后环境质量随之变好。预测之后的5年表明,流量指标继续增加而存量指标不断下降,这是经济发展方式转变,一些环保政策得到落实的结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 We analyzed the relationship between GDP per capita and atmospheric pollution in Harbin according to the air pollution indicators and GDP per capita in 2007- 2012 in Harbin. Taking GDP per capita as the independent variable and air pollution indicator as the dependent variable,the Harbin Environmental Kuznets curve was established. Then we used the gray system GM( 1,1) model to predict the next five years’ situation. Through the study we found that the curve of the emission indicator was similar to the left part of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. It means that emissions continued to increase as economic growth. But the curve of the concentration indicator was similar to the right part of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. It means that the environmental quality improved when economy increased to a certain amount. We calculated the next five years and found that although waste gas emissions will increase,the environment quality will be better and better. It means that with the development of economy,the government pays more attention to the environment and the environmental policies are implemented well. But we still need to put more efforts into the environmental protection.更多还原