【摘要】 基于内生经济增长理论,利用河北1981-2012年时间序列数据,检验了变量平稳性和协整关系,通过状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波算法实证测算了研究区间河北由技术进步引起的能源回弹效应。研究表明:1981-2012年,河北省短期和长期能源回弹效应较高,均值分别为1.096和1.212,没有实现技术进步的预期节能效果,说明节能努力被经济增长带来的能源消费增加所抵消;河北回弹效应总体呈下降趋势,说明技术进步带来的能效提高发挥了一定的节能降耗作用;由于能源回弹效应的存在,必须改变单纯依靠技术进步提高能效的传统节能思路,将技术进步与能源价格改革、产业结构升级和政府税收补贴调节等辅助手段相结合,才能最大程度的实现预期节能效果,解决河北能源短缺与经济增长之间的矛盾。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the Endogenous Growth Theory,we applied time series data from 1981- 2012 to test the stationary and co- integration relationship in Hebei province. The rebound effects of technological progress on energy consumption were empirically estimated according to the state space model and Kalman filter. The experimental results showed that both the short- term and long- term average rebound effect size in Hebei during 1981- 2012 were high,about 1. 096 and 1. 212,indicating that the expected effect of energy saving of technological progress hadn’t been achieved and counteracted by the increasing energy consumption due to economic growth.The size of rebound effects were declining during the research period,indicating that improving the technological level of energy efficiency played a role in energy- saving and cost- reducing. Because of the energy rebound effect,the traditional energy saving policies which only rely on technological progress to improve energy efficiency should be changed. The realization of energy- saving effect should not be only dependent on the technical progress,but also on energy pricing reform,industrial structure upgrading and tax subsidy to maximize the potential energy conservation and solve the problem between energy shortage in Hebei and economic growth.更多还原