【摘要】 目的分析2013—2015年陕西省手足口病流行病学特征和流行趋势。方法对2013—2015年陕西省手足口病疫情进行描述性流行病学分析,采用流行控制图法预测2016年发病趋势。结果 2013—2015年陕西省累计报告手足口病病例191 562例,其中重症病例2 630例,死亡35例,年平均发病率为169.31/10万,病死率为0.02%。发病高峰在4—7月;西安、渭南、咸阳是最主要的高发地区。实验室诊断手足口病病例共9 183例,其中肠道病毒71型(EV 71)、柯萨奇病毒A16型(CoxAl6)和其它肠道病毒分别占34.28%,20.05%和45.67%。流行控制图法预测2016年1~10周陕西省手足口病实际发病数略低于目标值。结论通过对既往监测资料的分析,确定陕西省手足口病的预警线和行动线,为相关决策制定提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and tendency prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease( HFMD) from2013 to 2015 in Shaanxi Province. Methods A descriptive analysis was conducted through the surveillance data of HFMD in Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2015. Epidemiological tendency was predicted by epidemic control chart. Results A total of 191 562 cases of HFMD were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2015,including 2630 severe cases and 35 deaths. The reported incidence was 169. 31 per 100 000 and the case fatality was 0. 02%. The peak of incidence was from April to July. Regions as Xian,Weinan,and Xianyang had the highest incidence in the province. A total of 9183 cases of HFMD were laboratory confirmed,the enterovirus 71( EV71),coxsackie virus A16( CoxA16) and other enterovirus( EV) accounted for 34. 28%,20. 05% and 45. 67%,respectively. Epidemic control diagram method forecast showed that the actual number of HFMD in Shaanxi province,from 1stto 10 th weeks in 2016 would be somewhat less than the target value. Conclusion The warning line and action line of HFMD were obtained by analyzing the surveillance data in Shaanxi Province. The findings provide evidence based data for decision making.更多还原