【摘要】 基于西北网某光伏电站实测数据,建立了太阳辐照度全年变化日序列模型,提出了两步式马尔科夫链时序蒙特卡洛模拟法。模拟了太阳辐照度的全年变化特性,完成了全年天气状态转移全过程模拟和某天气状态下太阳辐照度波动模拟,同时研究了光伏电站多点接入时所有光伏电站总出力曲线的特性。算例仿真分析了相同容量不同接入方式接入时对发电系统出力的影响。抽样结果表明,考虑一定的出力上限随着光伏电站接入点数的增加,总出力在一天中某段时间内波动越小,对于电力系统的运行稳定性越有利。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper established the all-year sequence model of light intensity,based on the data from some Northwest China grid. In terms of the simulation of light intensity,the paper put forward two-step Markov chain realtime Monte Carlo simulation,to simulate the annual variation characteristics of the intensity of light. The first step is the simulation of all year round weather state transition,and the second step is the simulation of light intensity fluctuation in one weather state. On the basis of the above theory,the paper analyzed the characteristics of total output of photovoltaic power station. Examples were analyzed,when the same capacity photovoltaic plant is connected with the system in different way. The results show that the higher scatter degree of photovoltaic plant,the more contribution to the state and stable operation of the system.更多还原