【摘要】 利用祁连山十一冰川东、西支2011年和2012年夏季加密冰川物质平衡和气象资料,评估了基于气温的物质平衡计算模型（单临界气温法和度日模型）在整条冰川的适用性,同时采用扰动分析法和GLUE法,对3个关键参数的敏感性和不确定性进行了分析。结果表明:模型能较好地模拟东、西支冰川的夏季物质平衡,在时空尺度上具有较好的适用性,但模拟结果存在一定不确定性;冰的度日因子(K_ice)是影响2条支冰川物质平衡模拟精度的最敏感参数,其次是雪的度日因子(K_snow),而固液态临界温度（T_s）不敏感;模型参数组的"异参同效"现象明显,且3个参数的后验分布特征明显不同,但存在一个参数区间域,能较好保证模型预测的精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to assess the performance of the common temperature-index melt model at both spatial and temporal scale in Qilian Mountains,we performed the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on the parameters of a common temperature-index method and evaluated the glacier mass balance on a small alpine glacier,which is separated into two relatively independent branches,with the daily mass balance and the meteorological data in the summer of 2011 and 2012. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis was carried out by Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation( GLUE) for different conditions. The results showed that the temperature-index method could properly capture the diurnal variability of the glacier mass balance. But strong equifinality of model parameter existsed in model calibration due to the uncertainty in the parameters. The model was very sensitive to changes in the value of Kice,followed by the Ksnowand Ts. It was also found that the GLUE approaches could estimate and derive the posterior distributions of 3 parameters properly. Moreover,there existed an acceptable range,which ensured high precision under different conditions.更多还原