【摘要】 电力负荷预测是电网规划的重要组成部分,其结果直接关系到电网安全、经济和可靠运行。随着经济新常态的出现和产业结构调整升级,"十三五"期间华北电网电力负荷增长特性将发生变化。本文分别利用支持向量机、最大负荷利用小时数法和趋势外推三种方法,综合考虑影响因素、专家经验和历史变化规律,对华北电网"十三五"期间电力负荷进行了预测。最后,综合三类方法的预测结果,得到华北电网2015年、2020年最大负荷约为20000万k W和26000万k W,"十三五"期间负荷增速约为5.4%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power load forecasting is an important content of power system planning, the results of which will directly related to the security, economical and reliable operation of power grid. With the emergence of new normal economy and the advancement of industrial structure adjustment in north China, the power load characteristics during the "Thirteenth Five-year" will change significantly. In this paper, three forecasting methods are employed to power load of North China power grid, such as the support vector machine(SVM), the peak load equivalent hour method and trend extrapolation method. Finally, the comprehensive results are obtained based on three methods, which considers the influence factors, the characteristics of the expert experience and the historical change trend. The comprehensive results show that the maximum load of North China power grid will reach 200 million k W and 260 million k W in 2015 and 2020, respectively; and the power load will increase with a growth of 5.4% during the "Thirteenth Five-year".更多还原