卢布汇率剧烈贬值和波动的政治经济逻辑

【摘要】 2014年以来,卢布汇率大幅贬值和剧烈波动引起国际社会广泛关注。资本外逃、通货膨胀、外汇储备下降,俄罗斯经济面临严峻考验。深刻分析卢布贬值的原因:欧美制裁和油价下跌是导火索,经济增长乏力、结构畸形是根本点,开放资本项目是助推器。美联储退出量化宽松政策,美元加息预期不断增强,特别是中国大幅下调人民币中间价后,新兴市场国家和与中国有密切贸易关系的国家货币争先恐后贬值,在经济全球化的今天,发展中国家选择何种汇率制度、资本项目的开放程度等又成为当前研讨的热点问题。中国"十三五"规划建议指出,有序实现人民币资本项目可自由兑换,推动人民币进入特别提款权,成为可自由兑换、可自由使用货币,可见,人民币国际化进程已经开始提速。本刊编辑部特邀请国内专家学者参加讨论,剖析卢布贬值的深层原因,比较中俄两国在经济增长、产业结构、国际储备、本币国际化、汇率制度等方面的差异,评估卢布汇率危机对中国金融改革总体进程的影响,探讨中国如何在逐步推进汇率形成机制市场化的同时,有效防范汇率大幅波动产生的风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Russian Ruble exchange rate has experienced sharp de-preciation and volatility since 2014. The international community witnessed capital run- out,inflation and foreign exchange reserve falling in Russia. Western sanctions and the falling of oil prices are the powderhose,weak economic growth and distorted economic structure are the fundamental,capital account liberalization is an accelerator of Russian Ruble’s depreciation. The choice of exchang rate regime by developing countries and openess of capital account are hot spots of discussion after the Federal Reserve retreated QE and RMB central parity rate cut sharply. In this regard,the Editorial board had invited some scholars to discuss the following issues: what are the underlying reasons of Russian Ruble crisis,what kind of policy choice could be for developing countries on the exchange rate system,what kind of implications could be for the RMB internationalization and the capital- account liberalization in China,and what kind of lessons could be for the marketization of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.更多还原