【摘要】 基于InVEST模型探索了广东省1980-2010年陆地生态系统的碳储量变化及城市扩张对碳储量的影响,并借助元胞自动机模型(CA)模拟了广东省2040年城市用地的分布,评估未来城市增长对碳储量的作用。结果表明:1980-2010年,引起碳储量减少的土地利用变化中,城市扩张所占比重持续上升,从1980-1990年的28.11%增长到2000-2010年的46.13%,表明城市扩张对生态环境的压力在不断加剧。其中,珠江三角洲城市扩张导致的碳储量减少占全省总量的80%以上。进一步结合CA模拟结果发现,2010-2040年城市扩张导致的碳储减少量比1980-2010年有所增加。其中,新增城市用地面积的来源以高碳密度的林地为主,由此导致的碳储减少量占总量比重为55.07%,比1980-2010年增长了近一倍。模拟结果也表明未来珠江三角洲仍然是碳储量减少的主要区域,其减少量占全省的70.27%。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper estimated the provincial and municipal composite carbon storage variations in terrestrial ecosystems of Guangdong Province caused by the entire flows of land use and land cover type conversion during 1980-2010 using the InVEST model,and assessed the impacts of urban expansion.In addition,a method of linking Cellular Automata(CA)and InVEST model was applied to simulate the impacts of urban land development on carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystems of Guangdong Province in 2040.The results indicated that the carbon loss caused by urban expansion accounted for an increasing proportion,from 28.11% during the period of 1980-1990 up to 46.13% during the period of 2000-2010,showing that the eco-environmental stress from urban expansion was increasing.The Pearl River Delta covered approximately 30% of Guangdong Province′s area,while the carbon storage loss caused by urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta accounted for more than 80% across the whole province.Furthermore,based on the simulation of urban land distribution,carbon storage loss caused by urban expansion would increase during 2010-2040,compared to their counterparts during 1980-2010.Forest land with high carbon densities would become the main source of the new urban land,which resulted in 55.07% of the total carbon storage loss caused by urban expansion.Carbon storage loss in the Pearl River Delta would be 2.60 TgC,accounting for 70.27% across the whole province.The Pearl River Delta would still be the primary zone of carbon storage loss.更多还原