【摘要】 本文利用A-F-B地震成组孕育模式,对巴颜喀拉块体及周缘1996年以来的MS≥7.0地震前后中国大陆西部大范围内中小地震应变释放的相对变化进行了分析,发现在大多数MS≥6.0地震发生在地震应变释放显著增强变化的区域,强震间存在显著的时空关联特征。通过预报效能评估发现,在中短期时间尺度(3年内)上,这种强震的诱发作用对MS6.0~6.9地震的预测效果优于对MS≥7.0地震的预测,并对此评估结果进行了初步解释。更多还原

【Abstract】 We analyse relative changes of the seismic strain release(At value)in west China before and after strong earthquakes with magnitude equal or greater than MS7.0,which occurred in the Bayan Har block after 1996.The results show that there is significant tempo-spatial correlation among strong earthquakes,and most earthquakes with magnitude bigger than MS6.0occur in the areas where the At values are significantly high.Evaluation of the strong earthquake prediction using this method shows that the triggering role among strong earthquakes is more significant for earthquakes with magnitude MS6.0~6.9than those greater than MS7.0in 3years.Possible preliminary mechanism has also been proposed.更多还原