【摘要】 培育云南农村新的消费增长点有助于为农村新一轮的经济增长寻找出路。本文首先利用扩展线性模型研究云南农村八项消费与人均可支配收入间的关系,并利用ARIMA模型预测未来五年的人均可支配收入;在此基础上预测了云南农村未来八项消费,探寻了云南农村未来新的消费增长点。研究表明:食品、居住、交通通讯、医疗保健消费依然是未来几年云南农村消费的主要支撑点。更多还原

【Abstract】 To develop new consumption growth points in rural Yunnan Province helps the new tide of economic growth in the rural areas in general. By making use of the extended linear model to study the relationship between the eight consumption items and disposable income per capita of Yunnan and the ARIMA model to predict the disposable income per capita in the following five years,this paper presents the authors’ prediction of the aforementioned eight consumption items in rural Yunnan to identify Yunnan’s new consumption growth points in the future. The research shows that food,housing,communication and medical care will remain the major consumption growth points in rural Yunnan in the next years to come.更多还原