【摘要】 依据城镇化发展质量水平,将我国29个省(区)分为三个组别,利用STIRPAT模型考察了我国整体和处于不同城镇化发展质量阶段地区的碳排放影响因素。结果显示:我国整体和城镇化质量低的地区,城镇化与碳排放之间呈N型曲线关系;城镇化质量高、中地区,城镇化与碳排放之间呈倒N型曲线关系。情景分析结果显示:在控制碳排放量的约束条件下要实现城镇化和经济发展的预期发展目标,须提高能源利用技术,降低能源强度。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the quality of urbanization,this essay classifies China’s 29 provinces and regions into three categories. By using STIRPAT model,it investigates the influence factors on carbon emissions at different stages of urbanization quality. The results show that it shows a N type curve relation between urbanization and carbon emissions at the regions with low urbanization level. It shows an inverted n- type curve relation between carbon emissions and urbanization at the regions with high urbanization level. Scenario analysis results show that in the control of the carbon emissions constraints the key to realize the expected development of urbanization and economic development goals is to improve the energy utilization technology to reduce energy intensity.更多还原