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基于投资组合关联的金融系统性风险影响因素研究

Analysis of financial contagion based on overlapping portfolios

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【作者】 张吟朱淑媛张瑞李红刚

【Author】 ZHANG Yin;ZHU Shuyuan;ZHANG Rui;LI Honggang;School of Government,Beijing Normal University;School of Systems Science,Beijing Normal University;

【机构】 北京师范大学政府管理学院北京师范大学系统科学学院

【摘要】 基于Caccioli等的金融网络模型构建了一个银行-资产网络模型来研究具有资产重叠的金融系统的风险传染机制.用金融系统发生危机(大规模破产)的概率表征金融风险的频度,用发生危机时机构实际破产比例表征金融风险的强度,并视风险频度和强度为金融系统稳定性的基本特征.通过模型模拟发现,金融系统的稳定性受到投资组合分散化程度、市场拥挤度、机构财务杠杆率、机构投资组合相似度、初始市场冲击等因素的影响.特别地,尽管持有资产种类的多样化有利于独立金融机构的运营,但过度的多样性会威胁金融系统整体的稳定.

【Abstract】 The financial network of Coccioli and colleagues is adapted to establish a bank-and-asset network to better understand how financial contagion works due to overlapping portfolios.In the new model,contagion(large-scale bankruptcy)probability is used to indicate frequency of financial risk and proportion of bankruptcy in a crisis is used to indicate intensity of financial contagion.Frequency and intensity of risk are regarded as basic characteristics of financial system stability.Instability of financial system is likely to occur as a function of parameters such as bank diversification,market crowding,initial financial leverage,portfolio similarity and initial shock.Occasionally too much diversification may destabilize the financial system but diversification can help manage individual institutions.

【基金】 北京师范大学本科生科研基金资助项目(310400040);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2015KJJCA06)
  • 【文献出处】 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版) ,Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2016年04期
  • 【分类号】F830;F224
  • 【被引频次】11
  • 【下载频次】427
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