Character analysis of large area-to-mass ratio LEO debris orbit prediction

【摘要】 Based on rapid science orbits(RSO) for CHAMP satellite,the orbit of low earth orbit(LEO) space debris with large area to mass ratio and unstable attitude were simulated.It is found that the forecast error of unstable mode is larger than the stable one in any space environment and the prediction error grow exponentially.With TLE orbital data,the US-Russian satellite collision debris forecast error are analyzed,so more breakup event debris orbit prediction error character were mastered.This study has some significance for refined grasp large area to mass ratio space debris orbit prediction error character and enhance collision warning confidence.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on rapid science orbits(RSO) for CHAMP satellite,the orbit of low earth orbit(LEO) space debris with large area to mass ratio and unstable attitude were simulated.It is found that the forecast error of unstable mode is larger than the stable one in any space environment and the prediction error grow exponentially.With TLE orbital data,the US-Russian satellite collision debris forecast error are analyzed,so more breakup event debris orbit prediction error character were mastered.This study has some significance for refined grasp large area to mass ratio space debris orbit prediction error character and enhance collision warning confidence.更多还原