【摘要】 现代风险研究表明,主观感知的风险和客观存在的风险很不一致,风险常常被放大或者缩小,但造成这种差异的内在机理仍不清晰。本研究以山东非法疫苗事件为例,在风险的社会放大框架下,利用社交网络的大数据再现了疫苗事件从持续发酵到舆情爆发的全过程,分析了风险放大过程中的心理机制和社会机制。心理机制包括情感启发式、锚定效应和选择性关注,放大了个体风险感知,社会机制则是通过自媒体信息加工、情绪传染和社会争议等过程放大了社会整体对问题疫苗风险的感知。疫苗事件中的心理机制和社会机制的交互作用为舆情演化提供了强大驱动力。分析表明,自媒体环境中公众和社会的风险感知极易出现偏差,且较难形成自我纠偏机制,规范自媒体信息加工行为、监测和引导公众情绪是危机中风险沟通的关键,而现实中快速有效地处置风险事件是阻断风险持续扩大的根本途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk research shows that the subjective perception of risk and the objective existence of the risk are rather different.The risk is often amplified or attenuated;however,the inherent mechanism of this difference is still not clear.To take the Shandong illegal vaccine incident as an example,this study analyzed the psychological and social mechanism in the process of risk amplification within the framework of social amplification.The psychological mechanism,which includes affect heuristic,anchoring effects and selective attention,amplified the individual risk perception,while the social mechanism amplified the risk perception of the whole society by information processing of new-media,emotional contagion and social controversy.In fact,both the interaction of the psychological and the social mechanism produced driving force for risk amplification.This study disclosed that public and social risk perception in new media is subject to bias and lacks self correcting mechanism.To regulate information processing behavior of self-media and monitor and guide the public attitude are needed for preventing risk amplification,while rapid and effective disposal of risk events is a fundamental way for the control.更多还原