【摘要】 为了揭示赤道中、东太平洋海温的冷暖交替异常变化特征,以及它对长治市降水量和气温的影响,笔者根据1961年以来长治市11个县站的降水和气温资料,分析1961年以来长治市年降水量和气温的变化趋势,研究了厄尔尼诺事件/拉尼娜事件的发生和变化,以及厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对长治市年降水量和年平均气温以及旱涝灾害的影响。结果表明:(1)1961—2014年分别有15次El Nino事件和14次La Nina事件发生,发生概率分别为0.28和0.26;暖事件发生强度要大于冷事件发生的强度。(2)厄尔尼诺事件主要发生在春夏季,结束于秋冬季;拉尼娜事件主要发生在春—秋季,结束于春冬季。(3)长治市年降水异常年份均出现在厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件发生年或结束年,且厄尔尼诺开始年和结束年所对应的气候异常相反。(4)长治市年平均气温的高低与拉尼娜年有较好的对应关系。(5)长治市大旱大涝与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件有极其密切的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims to reveal the variation characteristics of the abnormal changes of oceantemperatures in the equatorial central & eastern Pacific, and the influences these changes bring to theprecipitation and temperature in Changzhi. According to the data of eleven county stations of Changzhi, theauthor analyzed the precipitation and temperature change tendency in Changzhi since 1961, and investigatedthe occurrences and variations of El Nino/La Nina events, and how the events affected the annual precipitation,annual mean temperature, drought and flood in Changzhi. The results indicated that:(1) there were 15 El Ninoevents and 14 La Nina events from 1961 to 2014, and the probability of occurrence was 0.28 and 0.26respectively;(2) El Nino events mainly occurred in spring and summer while ended in autumn and winter; LaNina events occurred mainly in spring and autumn while ended in spring and winter;(3) abnormal precipitationyears in Changzhi were also the years in which El Nino/La Nina events occurred or ended, and the starts of ElNino events had an opposite climatic anomaly to the ends of El Nino events;(4) the annual mean temperaturein Changzhi had a good corresponding relation with El Nino years;(5) there was a close relationship betweendroughts and floods in Changzhi and El Nino/La Nina Events.更多还原