【摘要】 考虑多重随机扰动因素下水资源脆弱性的耦合评价,采用Copula函数度量随机扰动之间的相依性,建立水旱灾害受灾面积的联合分布,计算联合分布的同现重现期和联合重现期。以中国东部、中部、西部和东北四个地区1978-2007年的水旱灾害农作物受灾面积资料为例,在正态分布检验基础上,计算各地区旱灾指数,分析灾害空间异质性。研究表明,东部地区发生严重水灾几率最高,其他地区发生水旱灾害的几率较为接近,水灾和旱灾发生频数具有尖峰厚尾特征。各地区当年同时发生严重旱灾和水灾的几率较小,但东部地区和西部地区同时发生这两种严重灾害的几率要高于中部地区和东北地区,我国应把有限的农业减灾资源更多地向西部地区进行配置。更多还原

【Abstract】 Propose the assessment method of vulnerability of wate resources based on multiple random disturbance.The Copula function is used to establish the joint distribution of flood and drought disaster areas.The drought index is applied to study the spatial heterogeneity of disaster in the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions of China from 1978 to 2007.The result reveals that the probability of severe flooding occurred in eastern region is highest.The frequency of floods and droughts has peak fat-tail characteristic.China should allocate more limited resources to the western regions.更多还原