【摘要】 将长序列的水文气象资料划分成3种气候情景,并收集1980、1993、2005年这三年的土地利用资料,运用到SWAT模型。利用该模型对9种气候情景和土地利用组合进行径流模拟,对比分析在不同气候情景、不同土地利用变化下的径流变化。结果表明,近30年漳河上游浊漳干流流域径流量呈减少趋势,在相同土地利用变化情况下,气候变化对流域的径流量的影响程度不同;在年降雨充足情况下,土地利用变化对流域径流量的影响程度不明显,林地和草地面积变化对径流影响比较大。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,a series of long sequences hydrological and meteorological data was divided into three kinds of climate scenarios,and the data of land-use in the three years 1980,1993,2005 was collected.The combinations of nine kinds of climate scenarios and land-use data was applied to make runoff simulation in SWAT model.Runoff changes caused by different climate scenarios and land-use data were analyzed.The results show that the Zhuozhang River runoff tends to decrease in the Zhanghe River upstream for nearly 30 years and in the case of the same land-use,climate change effects on runoff to different degrees.In the case of rainfall adequacy,the impact of land-use change on runoff is not obvious,but the impact of woodland and grassland area changes on watershed runoff is large.更多还原