【摘要】 目的:评估浙江省2015年输入性登革热引起本地传播疫情风险,探索突发事件公共卫生风险的半定量评估方法。方法:系统梳理输入性登革热引起本地传播的风险指标体系,用层次分析法计算指标权重,根据指标实际值计算绝对风险,同时,将层次分析法权重与TOPSIS法相结合,计算相对风险综合指数。结果:共识别登革热输入病例引起本地传播疫情风险评估一级指标4项、二级指标19项。19项二级指标中权重值最大的为“疫情相关国家入境人数”(权重0.0678),最小为“人口密度”(权重0.0371),专家评分矩阵的一致性检验统计量CR值均小于0.1(最小0.000,最大0.0922,平均0.0251)。浙江省平均绝对风险0.397~0.504(满分为1);对11个市计算的相对风险综合指数和绝对风险分值具有较为一致的风险顺位,其中居前三位的均是:杭州、温州和宁波,三者的绝对风险范围分别为0.387~0.494、0.404~0.511、0.392~0.499。结论:评估结果为浙江省防控登革热疫情提供了科学依据,也为今后开展登革热疫情风险评估建立了指标体系和权重,为突发事件公共卫生风险评估建立了半定量评估思路与方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To assess the risk of local transmission of Dengue caused by introduced cases with semi-quantitative method in 2015 in Zhejiang Province.Methods:Risk indexes of local transmission of Dengue caused by introduced cases were reviewed.The weights of indexes were computed by analytic hierarchy process and further used to generate absolute risk values by multiplying indexes.Moreover,comprehensive indexes were computed to describe relative risk by combining analytic hierarchy process and TOPSIS methods.Results:Four primary indexes and 19 secondary indexes were identified for risk assessment of local transmission of Dengue.The indexes with maximum and minimum weight were the number of immigration from countries with Dengue patients(weight value:0.0678) and density of population(weight value:0.0371) respectively.All CR values,statistics for measuring consistency of score matrix,were less than 0.1(minimum:0.000,maximum:0.0922,average:0.0251).The absolute risk of Zhejiang Province was within the range of 0.397-0.504(the full score was 1.0).The risk orders of 11 municipalities sorted by relative comprehensive indexes and absolute risk values methods were similar.The three highest municipalities were Hangzhou,Wenzhou and Ningbo and the ranges of absolute risk value were 0.387-0.494,0.404-0.511 and 0.392-0.499 respectively.Conclusion:The results provides scientific basis for preventing and controlling Dengue in Zhejiang Province.The indexes and weights may be used to assess risk of Dengue in future.In addition,the semi-quantitative method constructed in this study would be a significant reference for risk assessment of public health in emergencies.更多还原