【摘要】 目的 探讨英国国家早期预警评分(national early warning score,NEWS)对我国急诊老年患者死亡的预测价值和可行性。方法采用多中心前瞻性队列研究,对我国不同地区的九所三甲医院急诊就诊的老年患者使用NEWS预测死亡率。结果2013-10~2014-05共收集了1528例患者,主要观察结果是就诊期间的死亡。NEWS≥7分与死亡明显相关(OR=10.139,95%CI=5.795~17.737)。NEWS、MEWS对急诊老年患者预后预测概率的ROC曲线下面积[AUC(95%CI)]分别为0.834(0.778~0.890)vs 0.753(0.678~0.828),两者比较差异有统计学意义(P=0.045)。结论NEWS可以较好地预测我国急诊老年患者预后,且优于急诊目前常用的MEWS。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective National Early Warning Score(NEWS) was launched in 2012 by the Royal College of Physicians in UK.It improves the assessment of acute illness,the detection of clinical deterioration.The aim of this study was to assess the performance of NEWS in emergency elderly patients in China.Methods We conducted a prospective cohort by recruiting elderly patients in nine hospitals across China.Results Data on 1528 elderly patients were collected from 1st October,2013 to 31 May,2014.Main outcome measure was in- hospital death.Scores of 7 or more were associated with increased risk of death(OR = 10.139,95%CI = 5.795~17.737).The AUROCs for the NEWS and MEWS ability to predict in- hospital death were 0.834(0.778~0.890) and 0.753(0.678~0.828),respectively.NEWS had better discriminatory power than MEWS(P = 0.045).Conclusion The performance of NEWS in emergency elderly patients is valid and reliable.In addition,NEWS had better discriminatory power than MEWS.更多还原