【摘要】 基于Logistic模型,采用曲线回归分析方法,对安徽省未来城镇化发展水平进行了预测;运用STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘回归分析方法,对城镇化过程的边际碳排放效应进行了测度;依据城镇化发展趋势及城镇化演进的碳排放效应,对安徽省未来城镇化演进的碳增量进行了测算,结果表明:2020,2030年,安徽省城镇化水平将分别达到57.02%,64.41%;城镇化演进对碳排放的弹性系数为0.080 2;2012—2020年,城镇化进程引致的碳增量为200.3万t,平均每年增加22.26万t,2020—2030年,引致的碳增量为101.97万t,平均每年增加10.20万t.研究结果可为安徽省政府制定城镇化发展规划及碳减排政策提供参考,也可为同类研究提供方法借鉴.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on Logistic model, curvilinear regression analysis method is used to predict future urbanization level of Anhui Province; STIRPAT model is applied with partial least squares regression analysis method to measure the marginal carbon emission effects of the urbanization process; based on urbanization development trends and carbon emission effects of urbanization evolution, the carbon increment of future urbanization evolution in Anhui Province is calculated. The results show that: 1 The urbanization level of Anhui Province will reach 57.02% and 64.41% in 2020 and 2030 respectively; 2 The elastic coefficient of urbanization evolution on carbon emissions is 0.0802; 3 In 2012-2020,the carbon increment induced by urbanization will be2,003,000 t with an average annual increase of 222,600 t; In 2020-2030,the resulting carbon increment will be1,019,700 t with an average annual increase of 102,000 t. These research results can provide a reference not only for Anhui provincial government to formulate the urbanization development planning and carbon emission reduction policies,but also for similar studies.更多还原