【摘要】 在生产函数框架下,本文将多维校准分解方法和完全结构分解方法结合,首先计算了2002~2007年各类能源使用的价格替代效应和实际技术进步,随后对期间中国碳排放增量进行了分解。本文发现,在观察期内能源之间的要素替代表现为电力替代煤炭和石油,石油是主要的被替代类能源。2002~2007年经济规模增长和资本强度提高是中国碳排放增长的主要因素,而能源使用实际技术进步则是帮助减少碳排放的主要因素,同时,劳动力的实际技术进步和价格替代效应、能源的价格替代效应、以及终端需求结构的变化,都对碳排放增长起到了抑制作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the framework of production theory,this paper combines Multiple Calibration Decomposition Analysis with Full Factors Structural Decomposition Analysis. First we calculate the price substitution and technological change of each kind of energy of China from 2002-2007,then decompose the change of CO2 of that period. We find that electricity substituted coal and oil,and oil was the major substituted energy in interfuel substitution in observed period. The growth of economic scale and capital intensity are the major sources of the increasing of Chinese CO2 emissions from 2002-2007,while the technological change of energy use has the biggest negative effect. At the same time,we find the technological change and price substitution of labor,the price substitution of energy use,and structural change of final demand also help to mitigate the increase of Chinese CO2 emissions.更多还原