【摘要】 为探讨扎龙湿地土地利用变化规律,采用2000年和2010年7月两期Landsat TM影像作为数据源,分析扎龙湿地最近10 a间的土地利用空间格局变化,并以2010年土地利用空间格局为基础,利用CA-Markov模型预测模拟2020年扎龙湿地土地利用空间格局。研究结果表明,土地利用转换以明水沼泽向芦苇沼泽,草地向盐碱地,湖泊向明水沼泽转换为主,农田、建设用地、盐碱地的转入率较高,表明湿地有湿生景观向旱生景观转变的趋势。根据预测结果,土地利用变化将继续保持2000~2010年的变化趋势,明水沼泽、芦苇沼泽、草地面积继续减少,盐碱地、农田增多,表明湿地虽有补水,但水量分布不均,保护区边缘盐碱地增多,并有向保护区内部延伸的态势,保护区边缘需加强保护。更多还原

【Abstract】 To explore land use change in Zhalong wetland,we analyzed the distribution of land use spatial patterns in the past 10 years based on Landsat TM remote sensing images of July 2000 and July 2010.Based on the land use pattern of 2010,we forecast the distribution of land use spatial patterns in 2020 using the CA-Markov model.The change model was mainly dominated by wet marsh to reed marsh,grassland to saline land,and lakes to wet marshland.The transfer rates of cropland,residential land,and saline land were much higher,which indicated the trend of wet landscape to dry landscape.Based on the simulation results,the area of saline land and cropland increased,but areas of wet marshland,reed marshland and grassland declined.This showed that although water supply to Zhalong wetland was increased,the distribution of water was uneven,with the distribution increasing from the edge toward the central saline land.Thus,the wetland edge needs more protection.更多还原