【摘要】 针对重型数控机床故障数据样本少,传统可靠性评估方法无法对其有效评估的问题,提出基于Bayes理论对小样本条件下重型数控机床的可靠性进行评估的方法。利用自助法(Bootstrap)抽样得到样本平均无故障间隔时间(Mean Time Between Failures,MTBF)的离散分布,采用威布尔(Weibull)分布作为拟合分布,推导出可靠性寿命验后分布。通过试验数据和机床使用单位收集的故障数据的验证,说明了小样本可靠性试验获得的评估结果比较准确,该方法对实际的小样本评估有一定的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to solve the problem of fault date of heavy NC machine is little,can not be used to assess the reliability evaluation method of traditional. A method on Bayes evaluation of heavy NC machine was proposed under the conditions of small sample. can obtain Mean Time Between Failures( MTBF) discrete distribution by conducting Bootstrap sampling,choose Weibull distribution as the fitting distribution,calculation model were deduced to obtain reliability life posteriori distribution. Through comparison test results and machine fault data result collected using units,indicating assess results obtained small sample reliability are more accurate,this method makes the fault data obtained using similar products,making the assessment more accurate.更多还原