【摘要】 非常规突发事件的风险识别是应急管理亟待解决的难题.综合运用免疫危险理论与计算实验技术,构建了突发事件风险识别的抗体浓度和亲合度的双危险信号模型以及基于相似性交叉与多样性变异的免疫遗传识别算法模型,将非常规突发事件风险识别转化为多峰函数优化问题,运用所提出的算法,发掘非常规突发事件的演化规律,发现最佳应对时机.通过森林火灾算例分析,演示了基于免疫危险理论的非常规突发事件风险识别方法在应急管理中的应用,验证了模型的科学性和可行性.更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk identification for unconventional crisis is one urgent issue of crisis management.Based on the integration of immune danger theory with experimental techniques,double-signal danger model upon antibody concentration and affinity is constructed along with immune genetic identification algorithm upon similarity-crossover and diversity-mutation,which transforms risk identification of unconventional crisis into multi-modal function optimization.The methods can help explore the evolution rules of unconventional crisis and find the optimal response occasion.The scientificity and feasibility of the methods in crisis management is illustrated by empirical analysis of forest fire.更多还原