【摘要】 目的探讨ISS、MBS、ABSI和BOBI 4种评分方法对成人重度热力烧伤患者死亡风险的预测价值。方法回顾性分析2012年1月1日~2014年12月31日四川大学华西医院收治的成人重度热力烧伤患者的病历资料,记录患者姓名、性别、年龄、烧伤面积、是否合并吸入性损伤,并计算ISS(Injury Severity Score)、MBS(Modified Burn Score)、ABSI(Abbreviated Burn Severity Index)以及BOBI(Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury)的得分。通过绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线),获得上述4种评分的曲线下面积(Area Under Curve,AUC),死亡风险预测的敏感度、特异度,计算其约登指数,以寻找最佳截断值,筛选出对成人重度热力烧伤患者死亡风险预测价值最高的评分。结果本研究共纳入65例成人重度热力烧伤患者,其中男性49例,女性16例,平均年龄(44.78±15.71)岁。ABSI、MBS、BOBI及ISS 4种评分方法的AUC分别为0.930、0.845、0.878和0.715,灵敏度分别为0.800、0.800、0.800和0.900,特异度分别为0.944、0.926、0.500和0.889以及最佳截断值分别为13、126、50和6分。4种评分在两组患者间的差异都有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论 ABSI对死亡风险的预测价值最高,可较准确地对成人重度热力烧伤患者的死亡风险进行预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To investigate the predictive value of ISS,MBS,ABSI and BOBI for death risk in adult patients with severe thermal burns.Methods Data of patients admitted to West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 1st,2012 to December 31 th,2014,were retrospectively analyzed.The patient’s name,gender,age,burn area,and whether complicated with inhalation injury were recorded;and the ISS(Injury Severity Score),MBS(Modified Burn Score),ABSI(Abbreviated Burn Severity Index)and BOBI(Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury)score were calculated.Through drawing receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve),the area under the curve of the four scores(area under curve,AUC),and the sensitivity and specificity for death prediction were obtained.Based on the sensitivity and specificity for death risk prediction,the Youden index was calculated,the best cutoff value was found,and the best score of death risk prediction for adult patients with severe thermal burn was selected.Results Sixty five adult patients with severe thermal burn were included,with 49 males and 16 females.The average age was(44.78±15.71)years old.The AUC of ABSI,MBS,BOBI and ISS were 0.930,0.845,0.878,0.715,and sensitivity were 0.800,0.800,0.800,0.900,and specificity were 0.944,0.926,0.500,0.889,and cut-off values were 13,126,5,6scores,respectively.Conclusion ABSI has the highest predictive value and can predict the death risk in adult patients with severe thermal burns.更多还原