【摘要】 手足口病是影响学龄前儿童的主要传染病之一,早期的预测预警可以为疫情防控措施提供重要的参考,意义重大。本文介绍了国内用于手足口病疫情预测预警的主要模型,包括动力学模型、差分自回归移动平均模型、空间统计学、灰色预测模型及其他模型,指出了主要模型的优缺点,为手足口病疫情预测预警模型的选择和发展方向提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hand,foot and mouth disease( HFMD) is one of the major infectious diseases which occur in preschool children.Early prediction and alert of infectious diseases can provide a significant reference for the prevention and control measures. In this paper,we introduce and point out the advantages and disadvantages of the main HFMD prevention and alert models which included dynamic model,ARIMA model,spacial analysis,grey prediction model and other models and applied in our country so as to provide information and advice for selecting and developing prevention and alert models of HFMD.更多还原