【摘要】 使用鲁南地区6个气象站1961-2010年逐日气象数据和Penman-Monteith方法计算了各站参考作物蒸散量,利用K-W检验、M-K突变检验、回归分析、相关分析等方法对鲁南地区ET0的时空分异特征和影响因子进行分析。结果表明:鲁南地区年ET0平均值在1 000~1 100mm之间,日照与内陆站差异显著;近50年微山、滕州、费县、枣庄年ET0呈极显著下降趋势,倾向率为-2.56~-3.48mm·a-1,临沂和日照变化趋势不显著;鲁南地区ET0夏季最大,春季次之,冬季最小;微山、滕州、枣庄、费县夏季ET0气候倾向率占年ET0气候倾向率的49%~67%。年ET0极显著减小的主导因子是平均风速或太阳辐射。夏季ET0极显著减小的主导因子是太阳辐射,内陆站春季、秋季、冬季ET0显著减小的主导因子是平均风速,日照站春季ET0极显著增大的主导因子是水汽压差。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the daily observation data of 6meteorological stations in the South of Shandong from 1961 to 2010,ET0 were calculated using Penman-Monteith formula,then variation characteristics and influencing factors were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis assay,Mann-Kendall test,regression analysis and correlation analysis and other methods.The results showed that:The annual average ET0 of South of Shandong was between 1000-1100 mm,Rizhao and inland stations were significantly different.The annual average ET0 of Weishan,Tengzhou,Zaozhuang,Feixian has significantly decreased during the last 50 years,the rate was-2.56~-3.48mm/a,the trends of Linyi and Rizhao were not significant.The ET0 of the summer of South of Shandong was the largest,spring followed and winter was the minimum.In Weishan,Tengzhou,Zaozhuang and Feixian,the ET0 of summer has very significantly reduced the annual ET0 which contributes up to 49%-67%.The dominant factor of the very significant reduction of annual ET0 was the average wind speed or solar radiation.The dominant factor of the very significant reduction of ET0 in summer was solar radiation.The dominant factor of the significant reduction of the ET0 in spring,autumn and winter was the average wind speed.The dominant factor of the very significant increase of the ET0 in Rizhao during spring was vapour pressure deficit.更多还原