【摘要】 传统以煤为主的能源结构导致电力产业扩张的同时,必然会出现较为严重的环境污染和资源消耗的客观约束。从具有较多可再生能源的能源组合可减少系统对未来不确定化石燃料供给和价格带来的风险的角度,将金融投资领域中的投资组合理论引入,具体以风电为例,将电源结构看成一种投资组合,对我国电源结构的优化组合进行量化研究。同时从可能影响发电结构风险的资源耗竭、环境污染、技术进步以及宏观经济政策等四个因素,对电源结构的优化组合进行敏感性分析,得到量化比较结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to environmental degradation and energy shortages, a new round of economic transformation is vigorously proceeding throughout the world. The adjustments of the way of economic growth and economic structure put forward higher requirement on power industry. But the coal-dominated energy structure and unlimited sprawl drive power industry into corner of energy depletion and environment pollution. Different from traditional evaluation methodology from single view of cost, the alternative idea in this paper is to induce portfolio theory and treat power structure as one kind of investment portfolio. In this framework, diversified combination of renewable energy can reduce the systemic risk, derived from uncertainty of supplement and price of fossil fuels in future. Specifically, taking wind power as an example, we make quantitative research on the optimization of power structure under context of low-carbon economy. Also, under constraint of resource depletion, environmental pollution and technological progress, we make further sensitivity analysis on the optimization and get comparable results.更多还原