【摘要】 研究了基于灰模型的二元区间和三角模糊数时间序列的预测方法.目前以GM(1,1)模型为代表的灰色预测模型只适用于精确数序列.改进了GM(1,1)模型的定义型方程中的参数形式,使方程能适用于几类常见区间模糊数序列.接着,基于区间模糊数的计算准则,分别具体给出了二元和三角模糊数GM(1,1)模型(BIFGM(1,1)和TFGM(1,1))的预测过程.模型对于区间模糊数的界点序列的发展系数进行了加权平均处理,以此保证了区间模糊数序列发展态势的整体性.最后进行了实例应用,验证了模型的有效性.更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecasting method of binary interval and triangular fuzzy number time series is studied in this paper.Grey models on behalf of GM(1,1) are built on precise numbers.We have improved the parameter of the definition equation of GM(1,1) to make GM(1,1)suitable for several common types of fuzzy numbers.Then,the forecasting processesGM(1,1) for the binary interval and triangular fuzzy number time series(B1FGM(1,1) and TFGM(1,1)) are given,respectively,based on the calculation rule of the interval fuzzy number.The integral development coefficient of the proposed model is taken as the weighted mean of the development coefficients of the boundaries series of the interval fuzzy series in order to ensure the integral development tendency of the fuzzy series.Finally,the application examples have shown the effectiveness of the proposed model.更多还原