【摘要】 目的 了解山东省农村地区自杀死亡率的变化趋势,探讨求和自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型在月自杀率预测中的应用。方法 收集2006—2013年山东省11个农村县市的自杀死亡资料,对自杀率建立ARIMA模型。结果 2006—2013年山东省农村自杀率呈下降趋势。建立的乘积季节模型ARIMA（0,（1,12）,1）×（0,（1,12）,1）₁₂能较好地拟合月自杀率时间序列,预测2014年山东省农村自杀率为11.35/10万。结论 山东省农村自杀率呈下降趋势,ARIMA模型可用于自杀率的拟合和短期预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To under the trend of suicide rates in rural Shandong during 2006—2013,and explore the application in the prediction of monthly suicides rates with autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model.Methods Data of suicide death in 11 rural counties from Shandong were collected,and an ARIMA model was built for suicide rates.Results Suicide rates had a downtrend in rural Shandong during 2006—2013.ARIMA（0,（1,12）,1）×（0,（l,12）,1）₁₂ model fitted the monthly suicide rates well,and predicted the suicide rate as 11.35/100 000 in the year of 2014 in rural Shandong.Conclusion Suicide rates present a downtrend in rural Shandong.ARIMA model is suitable in fitting and predicting suicide rates.更多还原