湖北省旅游业发展与农民增收的实证研究

【摘要】 旅游业作为当今时代的朝阳产业,具有极强的发展潜能。为了更好地分析旅游业发展与农民收入增长的关系,寻求促进农民增收更有效的途径,本文运用多元线性回归模型对湖北省2002-2014年的旅游业年总收入与农民人均纯收入的数据进行了研究分析。研究发现:湖北省旅游业发展与农民增收存在着长期协整关系;湖北省旅游业的发展是农民收入增加的Granger原因,反之则不存在;旅游业的发展对于当地农民收入的影响程度较为明显,而对其他地区的影响较小。因此,湖北省应该结合各地区不同的实际情况,有目的、有针对性地制定各具特色的发展方向,实现农村地区的合理开发和持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The tourist industry, as a rising industry in the present times, has a great potential of development. In order to seek more effective ways to boost peasants’ incomes by better analyzing its relations with the development of tourist industry, this paper uses the multiple linear regression model to analyze the data of annual gross incomes of tourist industry in Hubei province and the peasants’ average annual incomes from 2002 to 2014. The research discovers that there is a long- term relation of coordination and integration between the development of tourist industry in Hubei and the increase of peasants’ incomes. The development of tourist industry in Hubei is a Granger reason for the increase of peasants’ incomes without which the latter is impossible. The development of local tourist industry has apparent effects on the local peasants’ incomes, but relatively less obvious effects elsewhere. Therefore, this province should formulate tourist development plans with local characteristics according to different situations in different areas so as to realize scientific and sustainable devel-opment in rural areas.更多还原