【摘要】 针对多种微博舆论同时竞争传播的情形,提出了一种多种群Lotka-Volterra分析模型。影响某种微博舆论传播的因素包括它的当前舆论量、内生增长速度、潜在生长空间,以及其他微博舆论的竞争作用。根据竞争系数矩阵可以判断不同微博舆论之间的竞争模式,模型能够反映微博舆论多种观点竞争与协同的传播机制。用提出的模型分析了新浪微博"拐卖儿童判死刑"事件中的四种舆论的竞争形式,分析方法可以为复杂微博舆论的研判与管理提供有效依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,a multi- species Lotka- Volterra model is proposed to describe the competitive spreading of multiple opinions in Weibo system. The spreading of a certain Weibo opinion is influenced by many factors including the current opinion volume,the inherent growth speed,the potential growth space,and the competition of other Weibo opinions. The patterns of competition can be observed from the competition coefficient matrix. The model proposed can explain the competitive and cooperative spreading mechanism of multiple Weibo opinions. Based on this model,the competitive patterns of four opinions in "death penalty for children traffickers"Weibo event are then analyzed. The proposed method provides an effective basis for judgment and management of complex Weibo opinions.更多还原