【摘要】 2014年国内玉米产量受干旱影响略有减产,但仍为历史次高年份;国内玉米价格阶段性特征明显,全年平均价格高于2013年。主要原因在于,虽然国内消费持续低迷,阶段性供大于求特征明显,但临时收储价格提高,收储量巨大使得大量粮源进入国家库存,形成了总体供求形势宽松但市场有效供给不足并存的局面。预计2015年国内玉米生产有望保持基本稳定,价格平稳运行,进口将面临较大压力。建议一方面继续完善玉米临时收储政策,另一方面逐步完善价格形成机制,研究制定玉米进口产业损害应对机制,完善应对农业灾害的相关政策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s maize output lightly decreased because of the drought in 2014, but which still was the second highest level. The domestic market price waved with phase characters, and the average price level was higher than in 2013. The main reasons of market performance included sustained depression of domestic consumption and obvious periodical oversupply, but huge volume of purchasing and storage made a large amount of maize enter national storage for rising price of temporary purchasing and storage policy, which caused the condition that relaxed supply & demand and shortage of valid market supply occurred together. It is estimated that China’s maize production and market price will maintain relatively stable in 2015, while import will take great pressure. The authors suggested that the temporary purchasing and storage policy of maize should be improved, and on the other hand, the price formation mechanism should be gradually perfected, coping mechanism of industry damage for maize import should be researched and formulated, and relevant policy measures on coping agricultural disasters should be improved.更多还原