【摘要】 PPP项目在全国的推广为甘肃省解决基础设施建设的问题提供了很好的途径,甘肃省PPP项目的落后使对其进行风险分析成为一个实际问题。基于贝叶斯网络法,通过专家调查和对相关文献的总结,评估一般情况下PPP项目的风险,再结合甘肃省自身特点,利用条件概率的计算方法,最终得出具有甘肃省特色的PPP项目风险概率评估结果。发现市场和社会环境对项目的成败影响最突出,根据实际情况,给出规避和减少风险的合理建议,试图为甘肃省目前的PPP项目风险管理提供帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 The promotion of PPP project in China provides a good way for Gansu Province to solve the problems of the infrastructure construction. The weakness of PPP project in Gansu Province led to a practical problem of carrying out the risk analysis of itself. Based on Bayesian network, through the experts’ investigation and summary of the literature, the risk of PPP project in normal situation is evaluated.And then, combined with the characteristics of Gansu, the calculation method of conditional probability is used to conclude the risk probability assessment results of PPP project with the characteristic of Gansu. It is found that the market and society environment are the most outstanding factors impact on the project. According to the actual situation, the reasonable advices of avoiding and reducing the risks are put forward to provide help for PPP project risk management in Gansu更多还原