【摘要】 2008年底以来,阿克苏地区阿拉尔市房地产市场出现房价逐渐走高,商品房投资额增幅加大,内部结构不平衡等持续发展偏热的迹象,针对这种现象,对商品住宅价格的研究就显得十分必要。文章首先对阿拉尔市商品住宅价格现状进行了分析,并在此基础上运用统计分析软件SPSS21.0采用主成分分析法对影响阿拉尔市住宅价格的9个因素进行了有针对性的分析,并应用统计软件Eviews6.0对数据进行多元线性回归分析,建立了阿拉尔市商品住宅价格预测模型,得出阿拉尔市未来几年的住宅销售均价。最后,在预测结果的基础上结合阿拉尔市住宅房地产市场的具体情况,为政府提出了使住宅市场健康稳定发展的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the end of 2008, the price of property in real estate market has gradually moved at Alar city, Akesu area. There is investment growth rate raising and market internal imbalance. All these phenomena show us a sustained but Overheating market. For this circumstance, it’s necessary to research on price of property. We talk about the current situation first, and analyze the 9 factors which affect Alar’s property price by principal component analysis(PCA) in SPSS21.0 software. Besides, we processed the data with multiple linear regression analysis by the statistical software Eviews6.0, built commodity price forecast model of Alar and calculated the property price in next few years. In the end we combined the prognostication and actual situation to give the government a recommendation to help the Alar’s property market achieve stable development.更多还原