【摘要】 目的分析连云港市赣榆区肺结核流行状况,预测未来肺结核流行趋势,为制定防治措施提供依据。方法利用连云港市赣榆区2009-2014年肺结核疫情报告资料,拟合GM(1,1)模型。结果以2009-2014年肺结核发病率为原始序列,建立肺结核报告发病率预测模型为x^(0)(k+1)=(1-e0.072(x(0))(1)-60.98120.072)e-0.072k,拟合精度为一级,利用该模型预测2015-2017年发病率分别为38.38/10万、35.72/10万、33.24/10万。结论该区肺结核疫情呈缓慢下降态势,未来3年将持续下降,可适时地调整规划卫生资源,进一步完善肺结核防治策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the incidence of tuberculosis in Ganyu District of Lianyungang;to predict epidemic trend of tuberculosis in the future;to provide scientific basis for making prevention and control measures.Methods A GM(1,1)model was established based on tuberculosis epidemic data from 2009 to 2014in Ganyu District.Results The prediction model using reported incidence of tuberculosis in Ganyu from 2009 to 2014 was established:x^(0)(k+1)=(1-e0.072(x(0))(1)-60.98120.072)e-0.072 k,with fitting accuracy of grade I.Predictive incidences from 2015 to 2017were 38.38/105,35.72/105,and33.24/105 according to this model.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis showed a slightly descending trend in Ganyu District,which would continue to decrease in next 3years.Adjustment of local health resources on time will improve the TB control measures.更多还原